Risk of Business Failure in a VUCA Environment: Determinants, Models and Management Issues - A Systematic Review of the Literature

Abstract

Over the past decades, the global economy has faced a series of unexpected shocks, including the 2008 financial crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict beginning in 2022. These events have exposed the structural vulnerabilities of firms operating in an environment increasingly described as VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. Such successive crises have generated major economic repercussions, reflected in declining production levels, rising unemployment, reduced investment, and intensified inflationary pressures. In this unsettled context, some firms have been unable to sustain their activities, whereas others have strengthened their resilience by adapting rapidly to imposed changes.

The originality of this article lies in the implementation of an international systematic review based on an in-depth documentary analysis of several empirical studies, enabling the identification of the most recurrent and convergent failure factors reported in the international literature. This contribution is reinforced by the broad temporal scope of the research, covering nearly three decades of studies, and by the methodological structure inspired by the PRISMA approach.

The findings reveal that the determinants of business failure revolve around three main dimensions: financial factors, managerial and organizational factors, and external contextual factors. This systematic review enhances the understanding of organizational vulnerability dynamics in an unstable international environment and provides valuable insights for strengthening firms' resilience.

Keywords: Organizational vulnerability, Resilience, PRISMA methodology, Internal factors; External factors, Predictive models, VUCA environment, financial risks.

Received Date: February 22, 2026

Accepted Date: March 14, 2026

Published Date: April 02, 2026

Available Online at: https://www.ijsrisjournal.com/index.php/ojsfiles/article/view/730