External Shocks, Management Control, and Financial Resilience Treasury Management and Organizational Agility in Moroccan Firms: An Econometric Research Design and Simulation-Based Validation

Abstract

External disruptions threaten firms through operating cash-flow losses, funding constraints, and delayed managerial responses. This paper develops an implementation-ready research design linking management control, treasury capability, and organizational agility to financial resilience in Moroccan nonfinancial firms. A structured, non-exhaustive synthesis integrates management accounting, corporate liquidity, dynamic capabilities, and panel econometrics. The proposed prospective design combines baseline capability audits with quarterly accounts and predetermined exposure to externally measured shocks. Firm and time fixed effects identify differential shock responses; local projections examine recovery, while mechanism analyses remain explicitly conditional rather than automatically causal. Because no observed firm dataset is available, the quantitative evidence comprises 7,000 executed synthetic panel estimations across fourteen design cells, not estimates for Morocco. With 450 synthetic firms and sixteen quarters, the mean control-buffering estimate is 0.079 against an assigned coefficient of 0.080; nominal 95% interval coverage is 92.6%, and the null rejection rate is 7.2%. Capability measurement error reduces the mean estimate to 0.044, whereas an omitted shock-aligned confounder raises it to 0.161. These findings validate reproducibility and expose identification weaknesses rather than establish substantive effects. The paper specifies measurement rules, baseline comparisons, ablations, inference safeguards, and ethical data-access conditions for a future empirical study.

Keywords: external shocks; management control; cash management; financial resilience; agility; Morocco; panel econometrics. JEL: G32, M41, C23.

Received Date: August 17, 2026

Accepted Date: September 09, 2026

Published Date: October 01, 2026

Available Online at: https://www.ijsrisjournal.com/index.php/ojsfiles/article/view/1013